Why do media outlets call the same race at different times?

A news outlet will call a race when they decide that they can confidently predict the winner and announce their prediction to the public. Even though a call is just an unofficial prediction, there is public pressure for these calls to be fast and right, and every news outlet handles this task a little differently.

All outlets collect data from similar sources to predict the outcome of an election, but each outlet processes, analyzes, and interprets these data on their own. These different processes will often produce race calls at similar, though slightly different, times. In the few cases where an outlet calls a race before (or after) other outlets, there are several reasons why.

First, outlets may have small differences in their data based on how they allocate their resources. If an outlet dedicates more resources to getting earlier and better information from a state, they may be able to make a race call sooner. This includes:

• Different approaches to exit polling: Exit poll results that include more high-quality interviews and/or show a wider spread between candidates may allow for earlier race calls.
• More local reporters at polling locations: Outlets with reporters on the ground can provide unofficial vote updates earlier than outlets that must wait for that information to travel from the polling locations to the central election office.

Second, even if news outlets all had the same exact data, they may call the same race at different times based on the decisions of their analysts. Analyzing data always requires making some assumptions, and not all news outlets will make the same ones. Making a race call also requires a high degree of confidence among analysts that the predicted winner will be the official winner, and outlets may reach this point of confidence at different times—especially in close races.

For additional information:

• Associated Press, “How we declare winners”
• Associated Press, “If the polls just closed, how can AP already declare a winner?”
• NBC, “How the NBC News Decision Desk makes election calls in 2024 races”
• Vox, “How the press calls elections, explained”