What do the terms used during election news coverage really mean?

The hours after poll close on election night can feel like a frenzy of numbers and jargon, and it can be hard to catch exactly what everything means. Some important concepts include:

• Calling the race – When news outlets feel sufficiently confident that they know who will win, they make a “call” about the winner of a race. However, a call is still an unofficial prediction by the news outlet. No election results are official until they are certified by election officials—often days or even weeks after the polls have closed.
• Exit poll results – Exit polls are optional surveys given by the news media to randomly selected voters after they have voted. Voters say who they voted for and answer other questions about the election.
• Expected turnout – This is the news outlet’s estimate of how many total votes will be cast in this election, generally based on the number of eligible voters and turnout in past elections. This estimate may be off, and news outlets will change it as they get more actual vote information.
• Percent of vote – This figure is a news outlet’s estimate of how close an election is to having all votes counted. It is a proportion calculated by dividing the number of votes election officials have counted so far by the expected turnout.
• Percent of precincts reporting – This figure is part of how news outlets track the progress that election workers are making as they count votes. It is a proportion calculated by dividing the number of voting locations (called “precincts”) that have begun to report results by the total number of precincts. A precinct is considered to be “reporting” once it has reported at least one vote, but this number does not tell you how many votes are left to be counted.
• Race spread (or race margin)– This figure comes from unofficial results, usually reported from ongoing counting efforts by election officials. It tells you the difference between the number of votes counted so far for each leading candidate. This number does not mean that either candidate is “ahead”—all the votes have already been cast, so this number is only a snapshot of where the tally stands at a given point in the counting process.

Remember, regardless of what news outlets are reporting, no election results are official until they are certified by election officials—often days after the election.

For additional information:

• Associated Press, “The AP has called winners in elections for more than 170 years. Here’s how it’s done”
• CNN, “It’s not magic, it’s math. Here’s how CNN makes election projections”
• NBC, “How the NBC News Decision Desk makes election calls in 2024 races”
• Vox, “How the press calls elections, explained”